Does Your Small Business Need Futurism?

Futurism sounds exotic. Mysterious. Sexy, even.

It conjures bespectacled intellectuals in minimalist clothing gazing mischievously from a sepia-toned photo.

And there’s plenty of reason to merit the reaction to them. They talk about a world we’re only dreaming of now. If we would just take their advice, we could achieve that golden, glorious future.

But here we are. Now.

Most small businesses sit somewhere between scrambling to cover expenses and installing new production capacity. Do small businesses need futurism with so many urgent demands?

What is Futurism?

Futurism imagines a range of futures anyone could encounter. Ideally, this exercise reveals choices that work in several possible futures.

Some small businesses make one big, speculative bet. If you ignore other futures, however, what becomes obvious later will blindside you.

How do you get to these futures? Part of it involves looking back to see what’s happened in a field in the past.

• What advances has that industry made?
• When did they come about?
• How did it lead to the technology we have now?

Adopting new technology or business models succeeds with new demand. Where are people lining up to get what’s available now? What else do they need and how do they try to get it? How will they try to meet this same need in another 10 years?

Is it possible to make this happen right now?

If you asked people how they wanted to get around before the automobile, they would have asked for a faster horse.

– Henry Ford

This is where you figure out what trends to hop onto.

No one starts a business intending to fail. Find how your current product fits in or what you need to change to stay alive. A little smart planning can keep your small business from going under.

Futurism in Practice

Running your small business still takes a lot from you. The effort to assess all possible futures may convince you to delegate to experts.

After all, they’ve made a career around assessing trends and making predictions. They even have a fascinating story to keep your attention with a call to action at the end. (Kinda like this blog 😅)

However, not every futurist’s prediction comes true. The future in the story sounds believable enough, so it’s foolish to adapt to anything but their vision. Right?

But some of these certain enough futures use faulty models with outrageous assumptions.

All models are wrong. Some are useful.

– George Box, British statistician

Take resource investor Marin Katusa. His book, Rise of America, has all the elements of futurism.

He applied trends in regulation, social clamoring, and climate technology to the mining sector. No one expected a budding international market for carbon trading to become the next big asset class.

In reality, carbon markets went through something closer to crypto winter. They are incredibly volatile. Much of their value depends on ledger balances and government force. Carbon credits are more like cryptocurrency for governing elites.

What he missed was the push back from the governed. It grew so strong that Vanguard lost access to invest in utility companies in 13 states. And this is one of the biggest investment houses in the world.

This story is still developing. But a massive wrestling match is determining how much governing people will tolerate. The one future Katusa outlined hangs on to a lot of assumptions. It doesn’t look like the tide will turn back anytime soon.

Acting on the Future

Imagine you had read this book.

It sold you on the opportunity. You quit your job. You got a second mortgage. All to start a small business trading carbon credits.

Then you saw the value of carbon credits drop 50% or more as smart money took its profits. Just like people who thought FTX paying 7% interest was a sure thing.

The book, the endorsements, and the story aren’t going to reimburse you. The returns on that investment were supposed to support you and your family. But political resistance and alternatives keep this story from producing results.

Remember: models prove wrong because human behavior changes to meet the situation.

Futurism and Your Small Business

Of course, that behavior change makes new opportunities for small businesses to thrive. So, what is the best use of a small business’ resources to launch and scale in any environment?

Let’s face it. Futurism works well for large companies making large investments over periods of years. But doesn’t an ice cream franchisee looking to build a new store have the same concerns?

This is an involved problem-solving strategy. Futurism doesn’t lend itself well to paying bills coming due tomorrow. So don’t look so far ahead that no one gets what you’re trying to sell.

Keep slack in your finances. It may mean slower growth, but you can also take more hits. This helps you figure out your next move.

When it’s time to use futurism, come up with more than one or two scenarios. Yes, it’s easier to only think of sunshine and doomsday. The future usually lands somewhere between the two.

But changing a few little things here or there can lead to wildly different outcomes. It could even blow up your thesis like it did for Marin Katusa.

Because it’s not just mystique. It’s a structured series of steps to look back at what was and position your small business for a range of what could be. That’s almost always better than making one big crazy bet.

Some results are merely luck. But planning and investing in the right things bring a lot more opportunities to your small business. Then you can look like a mysterious, sexy genius.

Does your small business need a better sense of what it’s growing into? Book a call with me today to find what opportunities best suit you.